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NEW HELMET USE STUDY–The Effect of Motorcycle Helmet Use on the Probability of Fatality and the Severity of Head And Neck Injuries.This article evaluates the effectiveness of motorcycle helmets in accident situations. A latent variable model is developed and estimated. It is concluded that (1) motorcycle helmets have no statistically significant effect on the probability of fatality; (2) helmets reduce the severity of head injuries; and (3) past a critical impact speed [13 MPH], helmets increase the severity of neck injuries. Further analysis establishes the qualitative and quantitative nature of the head-neck injury trade-off.
Methodology
1. This study employs standard statistical techniques (regression analysis) to isolate the main determinants of death and injury severity resulting from motorcycle accidents.
2. The data analyzed in this study were provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation and originally collected by Hurt et al. (1981), contract No. DOT HS-5-01160. These data are currently recognized as the most accurate and detailed available on motorcycle accidents (See pp. 11-12).
3. The effectiveness of helmets and other determinants of death and injury severity are estimated from a causal model. Three variants of one causal model are used to isolate the determinants of: (1) the probability of a fatality; (2) the severity of head injuries; and (3) the severity of neck injuries.
4. The use of a causal model distinguishes the research methodology of this study from previous studies. The advantage of this approach lies in the ability to estimate the separate effects of several simultaneous and interrelated causes of motorcycle fatalities and injury severities (pp. 2-4). Previous studies simply divide accident victims into a helmeted group and non-helmeted group. As a result all differences in fatality rates, injury rates and injury severities between groups are erroneously attributed to helmet use. These comparisons fail to consider other differences between helmet users and non-users which influence the probability of death and the severity of injuries. The most plausible hypothesis is that helmeted riders are more risk-averse and thus: (1) have lower pre-crash and thus crash speeds; and (2) are less likely to combine alcohol consumption and driving. Such behavior, rather than helmet use per se, may dramatically reduce the probability of fatality or the severity of an injury. Only a causal model that considers crash speed, helmet use, alcohol use and other pertinent variables can isolate the separate contribution of each determinant of the severity of injury or probability of death.
Causal Model (pp. 4-8)
1. The causal model considers three broad categories of the causes of death and injury severity. These include factors governed by the laws of physics, physiological factors. and human factors and operator characteristics.
2. The physical factors considered include: the kinetic energy (potential for bodily damage) transferred to the motorcycle operator by the impact, compressibility of the impacted object, helmet use, and possible engineering limitations of helmets (as affected by the impact speed that the helmet is subjected to in the crash).
3. The physiological factors considered include: operator’s age, blood alcohol level, drug involvement, and permanent physiological impairment.
4. The human factors and operator characteristics considered include: rider on-road experience, whether the operator had taken the correct evasive action for the particular accident situation, driver training, and the operator’s past accident and violation histories.
5. Numerous other determinants were also considered.
Results (pp. 13-18)
1. Helmets are shown to have no statistically significant effect on the probability of a fatality given that a motorcycle accident has occurred. This means that based on standard statistical tests we cannot reject the claim that helmets do not affect the probability that a rider will survive a motorcycle accident.
2. The major determinants of fatality are the rider’s crash speed (kinetic energy) and blood alcohol level.
3. For the average rider involved in the average accident, it is found that the probability of death increases from 2.1% to 11.3% when the rider’s blood alcohol level increases from 0.0 to 0.1 (from sober to legally intoxicated in most states).
4. In the same vein, an increase in the crash speed from 40 to 60 mph increases the probability of death from 7.1% to 36.3%
5. It is found that helmets have a statistically significant effect in reducing head injury severity. We can reject the hypothesis that helmets have no effect on head injuries in favor of the claim that they reduce head injuries.
6. It is shown that past a critical impact velocity to the helmet (approximately 13 mph), helmet use has a statistically significant effect which increases the severity of neck injuries. Thus we reject the claim that, helmets have no effect on neck injuries in favor of the claim that, past a critical impact speed, they exacerbate neck injuries.
7. As a result of (5) and (6), we establish that a tradeoff between head and neck injuries confronts a potential helmet user. Past a critical impact speed to the helmet (13 mph), which is likely to occur in real life accident situations helmet use reduces the severity of head injuries at the expense of increasing the severity of neck injuries.
8. Further statistical tests reveal the qualitative nature of this tradeoff. It is shown that an individual who wears a helmet and experiences an impact velocity to the head greater than 13 mph may avoid either severe or minor head injuries and incur either severe or minor neck injuries; all permutations of the tradeoff are equally likely to occur.
Policy Implications (pp. 18-20)
1. If a major concern of policy makers is the prevention of fatalities, helmet legislation may not be effective in achieving that objective.
2. If the overall cost to society of motorcycle accidents is the issue, then cost-benefit analyses that adequately consider the tradeoff between head and neck injuries must be conducted before the cost effectiveness of helmets can be determined.
3. Until the injury tradeoff issue is more carefully studied, it cannot be concluded that mandatory helmet use laws are an effective method to eradicate the slaughter and maiming, of individuals involved in motorcycle accidents.
4. A more effective policy approach would be two pronged, including both policies to prevent accidents and policies that effectively reduce the probability of death and the severity of injuries.
5. Policies to prevent accidents include: (1) the education of the general driving public; (2) the education of a younger and more inexperienced population of motorcyclists on the issues of accident avoidance and the proper use and control of high horsepower machines: (3) stricter enforcement of drunk driving laws; and (4) implementation of alcohol awareness programs.
6. Policies to reduce death and injury severity include: stricter enforcement of speed limits. the alcohol related policies suggested in (5) and mandatory driver training and education programs which emphasize the proper execution of evasive action. –Jonathan P. Goldstein, Ph.D. NEW GENERATION OF XTREME CHARGE BATTERY CHARGERS-This Xtreme Charge Motorcycles is the first true Next Generation 12-volt maintenance charger that provides users with the industry’s most advanced charging system to date. The unique, new charge algorithm built into the charger coupled with advanced battery evaluation capabilities and the patented high-frequency Pulse circuitry optimizes the performance of any 12-volt lead-acid motorcycle battery. It rocks. Contact: John Bell DEALER EXPO IN INDY THIS WEEKEND–Can’t make it to the show? Don’t be left out in the cold…Get the scoop on the hottest products straight from the show floor with theShow Dailies. Get Hooked Up Today The Dealernews International Powersports Dealer Expo is the place to be if you are a buyer or seller in the powersports industry. Don’t miss your chance to be a part of the most comprehensive gathering of powersports people and products in one place, at one time, in 2007. For the past 38 years, Dealer Expo? has provided manufacturers and distributors of powersports products, accessories and services the opportunity to meet directly with buyers, owners and managers of powersports dealerships and retail stores in a business-first buying and selling environment. And dealership and retail buyers descend on Dealer Expo? to uncover the hottest new products and services for their stores. Researching, buying and networking all happen at the Dealernews International Powersports Dealer Expo. If you’re not here, you’re not getting hooked up with the industry. NOTE: Dealer Expo? is not open to the general public. It is a business-to-business trade show. Business credentials are required to attend. TAKE ACTION ON HAWAIIAN MUFFLER BILLS NOW!– Muffler bills are being heard in the state legislature that will probably pass unless you act now. SBUPAC is putting together a coalition of muffler shops, custom car & MC shops, car & MC clubs, etc. to testify on these bills but we also need numbers to back us up. You are those numbers. Your action to take is simple. You need to send three emails and then forward this Action Alert to as many people you know who will be affected by these bills and ask them to email also. Unfortunately, not everyone is an SBU member so it’s up to all of us to get the word out. If you are in a club, notify all members. If you know people in the muffler or custom trade, notify them also. Some of the bills would add work and equipment to vehicle safety inspectors so notify them too. Numbers matter, and are the reason we are faced with these bills in the first place. Too many people have complained about noise in their lives and so legislators are coming after bikes. Some of the bills include cars and pick-ups also so be sure to forward this to anyone you know with a custom car or pick-up. There are plenty of other noise sources in people’s lives–dogs, roosters, lawn equipment, car alarms, big trucks, even church bells–but they are coming after us. Some of the bills involve increased fines. Others involve setting decibel limits and outfitting police and safety inspection stations with decibel meters, setting up impound lots to provide for holding your vehicle for 2 weeks, mandatory EPA labels on exhaust (so much for custom), “criminalizing” businesses which alter exhausts with $1,000 fines, and on and on. Incidentally, the HPD has been testifying AGAINST these bills. They have enough to do without chasing people with decibel meters. SO, here are your 3 email addresses: The first address will send your email to ALL state representatives. The second address goes to ALL state senators, and the third to Governor Linda Lingle. It’s important to email all 3. Put NO MUFFLER BILLS in the subject heading. Say who you are, give your address and phone, and say you are AGAINST the following MUFFLER BILLS: HB1447 You don’t have to include reasons. We will do that in testimony. The main thing is to have as many people as possible saying NO and saying NO NOW! For further information, here is a link where you can enter the bill numbers to read their wording, check their status, see whose name is on them, check their status, and read any committee reports that have been submitted. Link: http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/site1/docs/docs.asp?press1=docs Enter bill number in top, left-hand box. Check appropriate boxes. In addition to being against these bills, our position is that current state law is adequate. Below is current state law: ?291-24 Motorcycles and mopeds, noisy mufflers; penalty. (a) Every motorcycle and moped moving under its own power on a public highway shall at all times be equipped with a muffler in constant operation to prevent any excessive or unusual noise and no such muffler or exhaust system shall be equipped with a cutout, bypass, or similar device. No person shall modify the exhaust system of a motorcycle or a moped in a manner which will amplify or increase the noise emitted by the motor of such motorcycle or moped above that emitted by the muffler originally installed on the motorcycle or moped except a motorcycle or moped that: (1) Has three wheels; (b) As used in this section, “muffler” means a device consisting of a series of chambers or baffle plates, or other mechanical design, for the purpose of receiving exhaust gas from the engine of the motorcycle or moped, and being effective in reducing noise. (c) Whoever violates this section shall be fined not more than $100. [L 1949, c 21, ?1; RL 1955, ?311-27; HRS ?291-24; am L 1978, c 222, ?7; am L 1986, c 189, ?1; am L 1994, c 120, ?4] [?291-24.5] Motor vehicle muffler. (a) No person shall use on a public highway, sell, alter or install a muffler which will noticeably increase the noise emitted by a motor vehicle above that emitted by the vehicle as equipped from the factory. (b) Any violation of this section shall constitute a violation and shall be enforceable by police officers. The fine for this violation shall be not less than $25 nor more than $250 for each separate offense. Any person who violates the provisions of this section may be issued a summons or citation for such violation. [L 1977, c 79, ?1] ?291-22 Regulation of exhaust pipe and muffler. It shall be unlawful for any person to drive upon the public highways any motor scooter, as defined in section 286-2, the exhaust pipe or muffler of which has been so changed from the factory design as to increase the volume or audibility of the explosions within the motor thereof. [L 1941, c 140, ?2; RL 1945, ?11718; RL 1955, ?311-24; HRS ?291-22; am L 1979, c 105, ?28] Ride Free, In Unity! We need to share the following study with them. Here’s a link to the Independent Bikernet Noise Study–Bandit http://www.bikernet.com/news/PageViewer.asp?PageID=902 FREEDOM FIGHTERS WANTED– February 2007 – The Sturgis Motorcycle Museum & Hall of Fame is accepting nominations for the 2007 Freedom Fighters Hall of Fame. The Freedom Fighters Hall of Fame recognizes the sacrifices individuals across the nation, and world, have made to protect the rights of motorcyclists through their efforts in the political arena and in grass roots motorcyclists rights organizations. To show our appreciation for their commitment the Sturgis Motorcycle Museum & Hall of Fame established the nation’s first and only Freedom Fighters Hall of Fame in 2001. You are encouraged to participate in the nominating process by submitting the name of an outstanding Freedom Fighter from your state, or province, along with a brief bio as to why this person deserves to be recognized. Biographical information and credentials should be no more than two pages. All nominations must be received by May 31, 200 7. To request a nomination form or for further information contact Executive Director Pepper Massey, 605.347.2001 or email pepper@sturgismuseum.com United StatesArizona – Ralph “Sonny” Barger, California – John Paliwoda, “Deacon” David Phillips, NY Myke Shelby, Connecticut – Donald “Pappy” Pittsley, John “Rogue” Herlihy, District of Columbia – Senator Olympia Snow, Beverly Waters, Tom Wyld, Colorado – Mark Buckner Florida – Elizabeth “Boots” Buckholz, Doc Reichenbach, Indiana – Michael FarabaughIllinois – Todd Vandermyde, Iowa – Dick “Slider” Gilmore, Kentucky – Jay HuberMichigan – Angel Burton, Representative James Barcia, Minnesota – Governor Arnie Carlson, Bob Illingworth, John Sullivan, Bob Summer, Representative Tom Workman, Montana – Glen Fengstad, New Mexico – Dennis “Big D” Watson, Nebraska – Rich “Neb” Nebelsick, North Carolina – Rick Nail, Ohio – Bill Bish, Oregon – Butch Harbaugh, South Carolina – Jesse McDugald, Pennsylvania – Rick Gray, Texas – Sputnik, Washington – Swede Matzek Wisconsin – Wayne Curtin, Senator Dave Zien, Tony “Pan” Sanfelipo, Sue Menard, Governor Tommy Thompson, Buck Kittredge Canada, Europe, Australia:England – Fred Hill, Ian Mutch, Simon Milward The Sturgis Motorcycle Museum &Hall of Fame is a non-profit 501 (c) 3 organization and is open year round. –Pepper S. Massey Bikernet nominated a very worthy candidate to receive this award. We’ll let you know the outcome in the near future.–Bandit INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY CONFERENCE ON MOTORCYCLES HELD IN COLUMBUS–Back on Sunday March 29th 2001 following the International Public Policy Conference on Motorcycles held in Columbus Ohio a meeting was held between the Motorcycle Riders Foundation (MRF), the American Motorcyclist Association (AMA), the Federation of European Motorcyclists’ Association (FEMA), and the Federation of Internationale de Motocyclisme (FIM). From that meeting came a Memorandum of Understanding between Motorcycle Riders’ Organizations for co-operation on the Global Harmonisation of Motorcycle Technical Regulations that was written, agreed upon, and committed to by the four parties mentioned above. Basically each of the four parties equally contribute financially and administratively to attending and participating in every meeting related to motorcycles held at both the European Union levels and the United Nations levels. Of course the information and positions brought forth are agreed upon by the cooperation group, with none holding veto power, so we work towards agreement in all cases. Each of the four parties do hold NGO (Non-Governmental Organization Status within the United Nations) which means we have the right to be at these high level meetings and participate openly. The only privilege we do not have, of course, is a vote when it comes to being signatories on GTR’s (Global Technical Regulations), Treaties, and the like. Much of the work is actually done beforehand through committees and Working Parties which is where we yield our influence. From the US we often see NHTSA and the EPA participating at the various meetings so you know it is critical we represent the motorcyclists of this country at these meetings. We as a group are very active in Euro Emissions regulations, UN and EU sound issues, TUV certifications, global safety initiatives, world wide rider training, braking standards, the World Emissions test cycle development, lighting standards, sound testing etc. In the last three years alone we have attended meetings in six, maybe seven countries. I have been the MRF’s representative to this International Motorcycle Cooperation Group since 2003 and I personally have participated in meetings in four countries myself. I have been in several meetings where very specific technical discussions have been held regarding Euro 3 emissions standards and how our Tier 2 US standards compare and where the Japanese standards fall and then where this group would like to see these continuing to progress towards. If more folks in the states had access to this info within the manufacturers community I am convinced they would have a better understanding of where we are coming from on our EPA and Sound positions and be more open to them. I certainly have tried to introduce them to this. –Kirk Willard BIKERNET READER’S FIRST GROUND UP–Figured I would pass on some shots of the bike in case you wanted to put it online. I have more pictures than this but it will give you an idea. Built the bike from the ground up the first time and it was close to stock dimensions. Decided to tear it back down and had the frame chopped up. Now even have a nice patina finish on the tank and fender. Never ending project. –Jeremy Continued On Page 3
Department of Economics
Bowdoin College
Brunswick, Maine 04011
prseitz@bellsouth.net
Phone 954-970-3394
HB1544
HB1650
HB443
HB1585
SB1238
SB1684
SB1682
(2) Is powered by an electric motor;
(3) Has a full body enclosed cab; and
(4) Has a seat belt assembly or a child restraint system for the driver and passenger;shall not be required to be equipped with a muffler.
–Warren Woodward
SBUPAC Co-Chair 
Executive Director, Sturgis Motorcycle Museum & Hall of Fame
605.347.2001
999 Main Street, Sturgis, SD 57785
fax 605.720.0632
www.sturgismuseum.com
President
Motorcycle Riders Foundation (MRF)
